Senior Analyst - Forecasting Rare Disease

AboutusAlexion, AstraZeneca Rare Disease:

Alexion, AstraZeneca Rare Disease is a biopharmaceutical company focused on serving patients with severe and ultra-rare disorders through the innovation, development and commercialization of life-transforming therapeutic products. Alexion is the global leader in complement inhibition and has developed and markets Soliris® (eculizumab) as a treatment for patients with PNH and aHUS, two debilitating, ultra-rare and life-threatening disorders caused by chronic uncontrolled complement activation. Soliris is currently approved in more than 40 countries for the treatment of PNH, and in the United States and European Union for the treatment of aHUS. Alexion is evaluating other potential indications for Soliris and is pursuing development of other innovative biotechnology product candidates in early stages of development. Further information about Alexion Pharmaceuticals, Inc. can be found at:www.alexionpharma.com

About the role:

The ForecastAnalystworks closely with the GIBEx/ GA&IForecast Leader, Portfolio Headsand Commercial teams to develop brand forecasts (revenue, volume and patients) for strategic brands and / or early assets for Global (focus on Top 8 markets) or US. As a ForecastAnalyst, you will play an important role in this process, understanding the assigned therapeutic area and brand, setting expectations for performance and helping guide brand strategy.

Together with the Forecast Leader/Portfolio Head, theForecast Analystdevelops robust portfolio forecasting and reporting model/dashboard to define financial opportunities across indications/therapeutic areas for the pipeline which aid in enterprise-wide portfolio decision making. This position will support assessment of internal and external opportunities, including rationale, technical and commercial considerations, in partnership with key organization stakeholdersincluding GIBEx/ GA&I, Marketing, Sales, Market Access and Pricing, Finance and Sales Operations. As such, the ideal candidate is highly collaborative and confident interfacing with senior and middle management (Global Program Leaders and team members, regional Commercial management, and Therapeutic Area management and team members) on internal governance interactions.

The key focus of this role is to provide financial and analytical support and oversight and produce long-term topline and patient forecasting to enable data-driven decision making (integrated with market insights), demand and infrastructure planning, and deeper comprehension of underlying commercial opportunities. This work will include the development of strategic business cases, scenarios, and inputs into portfolio prioritization.

Key Responsibilities 

• Responsible for the timely delivery of robust and transparent demand forecastsacross multiple indications forstrategic brands / therapy areas and key markets, including clear documentation of assumptions as well as levels of confidence / robustness

• Support annual processes related to portfolio assessment, long-term, mid-term planning & beyond mid-term for in-line products, planning, management, and prioritization for portfolios likerare disease, OBU etc. including analyzing changes with respect to prior evaluations.

• Actively participate & facilitate cross-functional discussions at program and portfolio level to influence program level strategic and forecasting discussions, provide portfolio view and cross-product knowledge, and generate alignment on company long-term strategic plans

• Confidently defend forecast approach, methodology, assumptions and output tocross-functional teams

• Ensure objectivity and robustness around the forecast via identification of the right data sources and application of industry-leading modelling approaches, with sensitivity analyses around key variables to assist in opportunity and risk management

• Demonstrate a high level of understanding of the points of integration of our work and that of our colleagues.

• Develop new product introduction volume forecasts, both short-term and long-term, to foster into strategic and operational planning processes.

• Support continuous improvement and innovation to evolve the existing forecasting capabilities in terms of value-add, risk / opportunity / uncertainty, methodologies (including statistical, predictive, simulations / Monte Carlo, ranges, deep knowledge of key data sets) to advise forecasts and decision-making

• Proactively leverage appropriate information into forecast via a variety of tools and sources

• For Global Forecasting roles: develop new forecast models as business needs arise (e.g. pipeline / early assets, LCM, business development)

• For US Forecasting roles: participate in monthly S&OP process and submit volumes; develop weekly / monthly / yearly models and conversions

Educational requirements:

• Bachelor’s Degree in relevant field

Experience: 

• 7-10 years of direct Pharmaceutical forecasting experience with an in-depth knowledge of forecasting techniques, models and approaches

• Good understanding ofmultipledisease areaswith experience in rare diseases/OBUincludinghow patients move through their respective diagnosis and treatment pathways, including treatment dynamics

• Experience integrating insights from market research and secondary data analysis into forecast assumptions

• Experience utilizing a range of data sources and analytics involving standard data in the Pharmaceutical industry – e.g. IQVIA (MIDAS, DDD NPA, Monthly Xponent), claims data (Truven, Marketscan), epidemiological data, etc. For US forecasting, experience with TRx / NBRx / NRx data and methodologies

• Strong analytical expertise; excellent Excel, financial modelling and forecasting skills

• Strong written and verbal communication

Preferred:

• Advanced degree preferred (e.g., PhD, MBA, Masters)

• Rare disease forecasting, portfolio prioritization, experience in AZ rare disease portfolio 

• Knowledge and experience in sophisticated statistical forecast methodologies and applied AI / ML / automation

• Experience working with Power Apps, specifically PowerBI

When we put unexpected teams in the same room, we unleash bold thinking with the power to inspire life-changing medicines. In-person working gives us the platform we need to connect, work at pace and challenge perceptions. That's why we work, on average, a minimum of three days per week from the office. But that doesn't mean we're not flexible. We balance the expectation of being in the office while respecting individual flexibility. Join us in our unique and ambitious world.