Analyst - Forecasting Rare Disease

About the role:

The ForecastAnalystworks closely with theGIBEx/ GA&IForecast Leader, PortfolioHeadsandCommercial teams to develop brand forecasts (revenue,volumeand patients) for strategic brands and / or early assets for Global (focus on Top 8 markets) or US. As a ForecastAnalyst, you will playan important rolein this process, understanding the assigned therapeutic area and brand, setting expectations forperformanceand helping guide brand strategy.

Together with the Forecast Leader/Portfolio Head, theForecast Analystdevelopsrobust portfolio forecasting and reportingmodel/dashboardto define financial opportunities across indications/therapeutic areas for the pipeline which aid in enterprise-wide portfolio decision making. This position will support assessment of internal and external opportunities, including rationale, technical and commercial considerations, in partnership with key organization stakeholdersincludingGIBEx/ GA&I, Marketing, Sales, Market Access and Pricing, Finance and Sales Operations.

The key focus of this role is to provide financial and analytical support and oversight and produce long-term topline and patient forecasting to enable data-driven decision making (integrated with market insights), demand and infrastructure planning, and deeper comprehension of underlying commercial opportunities. This work will include the development of strategic business cases, scenarios, and inputs into portfolio prioritization.

Key Responsibilities:

• Responsible for thetimelydelivery of robust and transparent demand forecastsacrossmultiple indicationsforstrategic brands / therapy areas and key markets, including clear documentation of assumptions as well as levels of confidence / robustness

• Support annual processes related to portfolio assessment, long-term,mid-term planning & beyondmid-termfor in-line products,planning,management, andprioritization forportfolios likerare disease, OBU etc.includinganalyzingchanges with respect to prior evaluations.

• Activelyparticipateincross-functional discussions at program and portfolio level to influence program level strategic and forecasting discussions, provide portfolio view and cross-product knowledge, and generate alignment on company long-term strategic plans

• Confidently defend forecast approach,methodology,assumptionsand output tocross-functional teams

• Ensure objectivity and robustness around the forecast via identification of the right data sources and application of industry-leadingmodellingapproaches, with sensitivity analyses around key variables toassistin opportunity and risk management

• Demonstratea high levelof understanding of the points of integration of our work and that of our colleagues.

• Develop new product introduction volume forecasts, both short-term and long-term, to foster into strategic and operational planning processes.

• Support continuous improvement and innovation to evolve the existing forecasting capabilities in terms of value-add, risk / opportunity / uncertainty, methodologies (including statistical, predictive, simulations / Monte Carlo, ranges, deep knowledge of key data sets) toadviseforecasts and decision-making

• Proactivelyleverageappropriate informationinto forecast via a variety of tools and sources

• For Global Forecasting roles: develop new forecast models as business needs arise (e.g.pipeline / early assets, LCM, business development)

• For US Forecasting roles:participatein monthly S&OP process andsubmitvolumes; develop weekly / monthly / yearly models and conversions

Educational requirements:

• Bachelor’s Degree in relevant field

Experience: 

• 3+years of directPharmaceuticalforecasting experience with an in-depth knowledge of forecasting techniques,modelsand approaches

• Good understanding of one or more disease areaswith experience in rare diseases/ OBUincludinghow patients move through their respective diagnosis and treatment pathways, including treatment dynamics

• Experience integrating insights from market research and secondary data analysis into forecast assumptions

• Experienceutilizinga range of data sources and analytics involving standard data in thePharmaceuticalindustry –e.g.IQVIA (MIDAS, DDD NPA, MonthlyXponent), claims data (Truven,Marketscan), epidemiological data, etc. For US forecasting, experience withTRx/NBRx/NRxdata and methodologies

• Strong analyticalexpertise; excellent Excel, financial modelling and forecasting skills

• Strong written and verbal communication

Preferred:

• Advanced degree preferred (e.g., PhD, MBA, Masters)

• Rare disease forecasting, portfolio prioritization,experience in AZrare disease portfolio 

• Knowledge and experience in sophisticated statistical forecast methodologies and applied AI / ML / automation

• Experience working with Power Apps, specificallyPowerBI